Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Perry and Gingrich, sitting in the polls…

R-E-B-O-U-N-D-I-N-G.

First came Cain, then came Politico, then came USA Today/Gallup and NBC News/Wall Street Journal with the latest numbers.

This also make three straight post-scandal polls that have shown Cain to have re-lost his lead over Romney.

The facts: Hart/McInturff for NBC News/Wall Street Journal polled 300 Republican primary voters, MoE about 6. USA Today/Gallup polled 1,054 Republicans, MoE about 4. Both did mobiles and land lines.

This morning I was skeptical when I saw the alleged rise of Rick Perry. But as I like to say, probabilities multiply.

So when Perry shows at 11 and 10 after being at 14 on Friday, making three straight recoveries since his single-figure collapse, while Gingrich is at 13 and 12 after being at 12 on Friday, I have to conclude Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich are both in the hunt. Appropriately enough they move together, as Gingrich wrote the foreword to Perry’s book.

Cain has still lost the lead. Mitt Romney leads by one, 28-27, in NBC News/USA Today, while Romney and Herman Cain are tied at 21 in the USA Today/Gallup.

Four Republicans currently control about 70% of the Republican vote right now, nationally. The race is a long way from the days of Romney 20, Gingrich 15, and a mess of single figure nobodies.

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