Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Kansas answers the question: What about a two-man race?

Some opponents of Mitt Romney as Republican nominee have long insisted that once it’s a two-man race for the nomination, Romney will lose.

Saturday’s results suggest otherwise. Even on a good night for Rick Santorum, he only treaded water.

The headline on the 10th was that Santorum dominated the Kansas primary, and won 33 of 40 delegates, leaving Romney with only 7. Newt Gingrich was shut out.

However three territorial parties (Guam, Northern Marianas, and the Virgin Islands) also held caucuses. With one delegate yet to be determined, Romney won 25 of 27 delegates. Santorum and Gingrich were both shut out.

As we can see in the chart above (click for full size version), the result of the night was that Rick Santorum only stayed even. His deficit from a majority of pledged delegates remained constant. Mitt Romney lost out slightly, but still retains a 4 delegate majority.

Previously my chart had shown Romney falling short of a majority. However new data has come in, more delegates have been decided, and Romney gained just enough out of the late Super Tuesday decisions to come back over the top.

Mitt Romney is winning slight majorities in a three man race. That tells me in a two man race he’d still win. Even if Santorum gets all of the delegates that are now going to other candidates, Romney still takes the first ballot.

Kansas has clarified much.

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