Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

The Rasmussen Secret Sauce: Pennsylvania Governor Edition

Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees.

I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the race itself.


Read More | May 24, 2010
How to use the Swingometers

Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.

Here’s an explanation.


Read More | May 22, 2010
Research 2000, Rasmussen, and the AR and PA primaries

Research 2000 very much wants you to know that they do polls for newspapers in St. Louis, Lexington, Fort Wayne, South Bend, and Reno. They don’t want you to think of them primarily as doing polls for left-wing activist outlets Daily Kos and now Democracy for America, the group founded to continue the work of former Presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Someone should tell Daily Kos and Nate Silver this though, as they beat the wardrums against R2k competitor Rasmussen Reports, that R2k is trying to look less partisan, not more.


Read More | May 21, 2010
The power of one endorsement

Political campaigns announce endorsements all of the time. Most don’t move the needle in big time statewide or national elections.

But in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor of South Carolina, one endorsement seems to have made all the difference.


Read More | May 21, 2010
PPP vs Rasmussen: Colorado Edition

In the North Carolina Senate race we already saw that Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling are showing markedly different figures.

It looks like we’re going to see the same contrast in the Colorado Senate race, as Rasmussen showed Republicans doing well while PPP shows Democrats ahead.


Read More | May 20, 2010
The race that Crist passed on

Charlie Crist gave up the opportunity to run for re-election as Florida Governor to run for Senate, but instead got run out of the Republican primary and has since left the party entirely. I wonder what might have been had he just run for Governor instead.

Instead though, Republicans Bill McCollum and Rick Scott are fighting to challenge Democrat Alex Sink in November. Rasmussen polled these matchups.


Read More | May 19, 2010
Grading the Pollsters: Pennsylvania Edition

Per Real Clear Politics there were six pollsters who took on the Pennsylvania primary, which Joe Sestak won handily by 8, 54-46 over Arlen Specter.

Let’s see who got it right, and also give credit to a particular pollster where it is due.


Read More | May 19, 2010
Perry Rebounds

Previously, the story of the race for Governor in Texas that was that Rick Perry was stagnant in the polls and Democrat Bill White was rising.

But now, Rasmussen has shown a change. Perry has gone over 50 for the first time, and White has gone back under 40.


Read More | May 18, 2010
Swingometer now suggests 33 seat Republican gain

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.

Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.


Read More | May 18, 2010
Primary Eve in Pennsylvania

One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?

Let’s dig in.


Read More | May 17, 2010
Randal Paul dominant in Kentucky

I have an exciting new iPhone® app in progress. In fact, I’m so excited about it that I could hardly sleep last night, and worked way too much on the iPhone Swingometer instead.

So perhaps the lack of sleep is the reason I’m drawing a total blank on how to jazz up PPP’s latest on the Republican side of the Kentucky Senate Primary.


Read More | May 17, 2010
New Electoral College Swingometer

To join the House Swingometer I’ve now added the Electoral College Swingometer. Obviously we need the 2010 Census to complete before we will know the actual makeup of the 2012 Electoral College, but for now I use the 2008 numbers. 

Read More | May 16, 2010
Ayotte cruises; Hodes passes Lamontagne
Read More | May 14, 2010