Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Perry Rebounds

By on May 18, 2010

Perry Rebounds

Previously, the story of the race for Governor in Texas that was that Rick Perry was stagnant in the polls and Democrat Bill White was rising.

But now, Rasmussen has shown a change. Perry has gone over 50 for the first time, and White has gone back under 40.

Perry has made a little surge to take a 51-38 lead (MoE 4.5). White has gone to his lowest point in the Rasmussen poll, while Perry has gone to his highest. Perry has now taken a dominant 92% lead probability in my model.

Yes, the chance of an outlier is always there, but to me this looks more like a Republican unity bounce as the Kay Bailey Hutchison and Debra Medina voters come home.


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