Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Primary Eve in Pennsylvania

One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?

Let’s dig in.

Two polls on the Senate Primary for the Democrats. Qunnipiac University out today shows Sestak slightly ahead at 42-41 (MoE 3.2), and Muhlenberg/Morning Call from yesterday reads a 44-44 tie. If any race is too close to call, this is it.

Not that the special election isn’t trying to match it. PPP gives Tim Burns the bare 48-47 lead (MoE 3.4) over Mark Critz. I sure wish we had more polling on this race, in order to know better just how off the Susquehanna poll was. But still I think it’s safe to say either candidate can win.

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