Unlikely Voter

Up until now, Kelly Ayotte has been leading the Republican primary for Senate in New Hampshire by enough that I haven’t paid a whole lot of attention to her opponents.

But if Magellan Strategies is right in its latest poll, that’s changing.

The University of Cincinnati is very proud of its Ohio Poll branding, and the new version is out. It’s an interesting blend of a poll in that it asks all adults some questions, then filters to likely voters and asks them other questions.

SurveyUSA brings us a comprehensive poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. The Democrats are sure to nominate Diane Denish, but the Republicans appear to be deciding between Susana Martinez and Allen Weh.

The poll checked them in the primary and the general, so let’s see where things stand.

Good evening. Yes this is a late post and I apologize, but Here’s the latest Rasmussen on the Oregon Governor’s race.

Yesterday the word came down that Dino Rossi is in fact entering the Senate race against Patty Murray in Washington. Additionally, we have a University of Washington poll for May on the race that also came out the same day.

Let’s see how he’s starting out.

Two polls on the California Senate Republican primary caught my attention today. I’ve been holding off posting on this race with my poll analysis hat on, because I wasn’t sure I could trust myself to be even handed enough.

But these two polls, coming as they are 15 days before election day, are interesting enough that I have to try. They could hardly be more different.

Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees.

I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the race itself.

In the North Carolina Senate race we already saw that Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling are showing markedly different figures.

It looks like we’re going to see the same contrast in the Colorado Senate race, as Rasmussen showed Republicans doing well while PPP shows Democrats ahead.

Charlie Crist gave up the opportunity to run for re-election as Florida Governor to run for Senate, but instead got run out of the Republican primary and has since left the party entirely. I wonder what might have been had he just run for Governor instead.

Instead though, Republicans Bill McCollum and Rick Scott are fighting to challenge Democrat Alex Sink in November. Rasmussen polled these matchups.

Per Real Clear Politics there were six pollsters who took on the Pennsylvania primary, which Joe Sestak won handily by 8, 54-46 over Arlen Specter.

Let’s see who got it right, and also give credit to a particular pollster where it is due.

Previously, the story of the race for Governor in Texas that was that Rick Perry was stagnant in the polls and Democrat Bill White was rising.

But now, Rasmussen has shown a change. Perry has gone over 50 for the first time, and White has gone back under 40.

One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?

Let’s dig in.

Spending some time with the nephew so apologies for the late and simpler post. Next week things should be back on track. This evening, we played Sorry! I took a 2-0 lead, he made a rousing comeback to tie it at 3, and then finally I edged him out to slip in for the win.

But for now, the Colorado race for Governor!