Unlikely Voter

I just completed the submission process for the iPhone® and iPod Touch® Swingometer app. I suppose it should run on the iPad™ but not having one, that’s still a gray area for me. Hopefully the review process is kind and the app will be in the App Store℠ soon.

The Swingometer app will cost $0.99 in the US, and similar amounts in other countries.

So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide.

But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?

We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling.

The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.

SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out.

We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.

Via Real Clear Politics we see that Magellan Strategies polled the Arizona Senate Primary.

It’s looking very good for John McCain, and JD Hayworth needs a lifeline, quickly.

On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.

Sharron Angle polled the “worst” against Harry Reid of the three leading Republicans in the Nevada Senate Primary, but she’s maintaining a lead going into the general election.

I let this one simmer for any unity bounces, so let’s take a look at this new poll.

Wow. Just when I thought both Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports were both showing Richard Burr in good shape, Rasmussen shows his lead down to a single point.

What happened?

National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006.

Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.

Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway.

But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.

Yup, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are tied again, says Public Policy Polling.

The only way I saw Toomey keeping his previous lead was if the Job Offer controversy heated up and implicated Sestak in wrongdoing. It seems clear to me that the whole thing has blown over, and now the electorate has shifted back toward the tie I expect it to be from now to November.

I always hesitate to analyze the California Senate polling because I have strong feelings about it. I live here. I was engaged in the primary. But this is key to determining how big of a wave, if any, Republicans see in the Senate, so I must try.

I’ve given enough time for both parties to settle down after the primaries, so here’s Rasmussen’s latest. Boxer leads Fiorina, but this is close.

Elections in Nevada give the voter the choice to vote for “None of These” candidates listed. Every poll I see of the Illinois Senate race suggests to me that if Illinois put that option on the ballot, None of These would win.

The next bit of evidence for the pile: PPP’s latest poll of the race.