Unlikely Voter

SurveyUSA polled the Oregon race for Governor and interesting enough, has it as a three way race. Featured are Republican Chris Dudley (6’11” center out of Yale), Democrat John Kitzhaber, and Progressive Jerry Wilson.

By the name of the third party I think we all know what’s going to happen.

South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.

NPR had a poll done of what they call the 60 most competitive House seats held by Democrathttp://unlikelyvoter.com/wp-admin/options-media.phps, as well as the 10 most competitive held by Republicans. However the poll wasn’t done seat by seat, but rather in three groups: The top 30 of the Democrats, the bottom 30 of the Democrats, and the 10 Republicans.

Let’s see just how far each group is swinging compared with 2008, and try to guess what that means for the country.

The latest Washington Poll from the University of Washington is out, and now that the dust has settled around Dino Rossi’s entering the race, he’s still close to incumbent Patty Murray.

In fact, her lead has been cut in half from last time.

I know some pollsters have rushed out to take a look at the primary states immediately after Tuesday’s elections, but we all know that those polls tend to have varying unity bounces. Rick Perry’s took a while in fact.

So I’ll let those races simmer a bit and instead look at Illinois today, as Rasmussen polled the Governor and Senate races.

I’ve been saying that the results in North Carolina would be a clear decider between the Rasmussen and PPP likely voter models. New polling has made the difference less dramatic, thanks to a Burr surge, but the difference is still there.

Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.

As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.

PPP’s latest on the South Carolina Governor’s race doesn’t even cover the Democrats. The assumption must be that Vincent Sheheen has it wrapped up, I suppose.

So, on to the Republican side, where Nikki Haley hopes to win an absolute majority and avoid a runoff.

I’ve been focused on governors lately, so here’s another one of those races. It’s another Rasmussen carpet bomb, this time in Connecticut. Two Democrats, two Republicans, four sets of numbers to chew on.

We’re in for the long haul in the Pennsylvania Senate race, because I honestly do expect this one to be in the toss-up range from now to Election Day, but that doesn’t mean we don’t get to check in on the polls obsessively the whole time looking for clues.

Today: Rasmussen updates on the race.

I keep saying that multiway races are volatile. When voters are spread out in more directions, the sums are smaller and it’s easier for big changes to happen.

Suffolk University’s latest on the Nevada Senate primary for the Washington Times seems to be another example of this effect. Sue Lowden has gone from first to last, and Sharron Angle now leads.

Rasmussen has carpet bombed the Rhode Island race for Governor, producing a breathtaking array of numbers to look at.

I’ll do my best to make sense of it all, even if a carpet bombed three way race is about my worst case scenario for clarity.

InsiderAdvantage polled for Statehouse Report the South Carolina primaries for Governor, and while the necessity of a runoff makes the long term future uncertain, the frontrunners in each race are clear: Nikki Haley and Vincent Sheheen.