Four polls came out taken on the eve of the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). Quinnipiac, Bloomberg, CBS, and CNN all produced similar but not quite the same numbers. How do we average them in a way that makes sense?
[More]Archive for the ‘ Gallery ’ Category
Four polls on the PPACA: Democrats start out Behind
By Neil Stevens on March 25, 2010
Barbara Boxer is in the Fight of Her Political Life
By Neil Stevens on March 18, 2010
On the heels of a Rasmussen poll suggesting Democrats should worry about Senator Barbara Boxer’s re-election chances, comes worse news from Field for the three term incumbent.
The raw numbers: Campbell 44/Boxer 43, Fiorina 44/Boxer 45, DeVore 41/Boxer 45, 3.7% Margin of Error. My model’s win percentages: DeVore 29%, Fiorina 44%, and Campbell 55%.
[More]Rubio v Crist: A Summary
By Neil Stevens on March 15, 2010
I wanted to see how my single-poll model looks when I apply it to the history of a race, and selected the Florida Republican Senate primary between former Speaker Marco Rubio and Governor Charlie Crist.
[More]Welcome!
By Neil Stevens on March 15, 2010
Welcome to Unlikely Voter! A plain summary of what this site is about can be seen in the About page, but I’ll now share the human side of that.
[More]