Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Next Week: New Mexico Primary

SurveyUSA brings us a comprehensive poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. The Democrats are sure to nominate Diane Denish, but the Republicans appear to be deciding between Susana Martinez and Allen Weh.

The poll checked them in the primary and the general, so let’s see where things stand.

In the primary, Martinez leads Weh 43-33 (MoE 4.6), with other candidates scattering 19, giving Martinez a strong 87% lead probability. With less than a week to go, and 19% already having voted, Weh needs strong movement quickly to turn that around.

On the other hand, some Republicans may be happy with Martinez winning, as she leads Denish in the general election matchup 49-43 (MoE 2.7), for an 86% lead probability. Weh, though, trails 42-47, giving Denish the 83% lead chance.

A swing like that could alter perceptions for partisan observers nationwide, affecting fundraising, national organizational support, and even volunteer enthusiasm.

But it all gets settled next week, as the primary will tell all.


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