Unlikely Voter

A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored:

Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are given over as Likely Republican.

We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP.

Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.

Randal Paul never has fully recovered from his initial unforced errors after winning the primary. Which is why Rasmussen Reports, which once showed him up 25 points, has him still lingering under 50 now, though still leading.

Florida is a state often friendly to Republicans, but is perfectly capable of voting for Democrats. So I think Republicans do have reason to be concerned about polls like PPP’s of the Governor’s race, but I also expect that Republicans will be better off after the primary.

For now though, Republicans are divided and Alex Sink leads.

Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6.

I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!

[Updated at the bottom at 3PM Pacific Time.]

The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to.

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.

This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.

Apparently Governor Sean Parnell is not getting a walk in the Alaska GOP Primary, because Rasmussen Reports carpet bombed that race with three Republicans and two Democrats.

I’d have made a Remember the Maine pun in the title but I think I did that last time. So we’ll cut the cheap gags and get right to the meat: Per the latest Rasmussen poll of the race, independent Eliot Cutler is making life tough for both parties, as nobody is over 40 in the race for Governor.

As we cross past midnight in Georgia, it becomes primary election day in that state. So let’s look at one more poll of the Republican side of the Governor’s race. There’s almost certainly going to be a primary runoff, but with three credible candidates and two spots, somebody’s going to be left out when the music stops.

According to Mason Dixon the one left out will be Nathan Deal.

I may suspect that Mason-Dixon’s polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal undercount Sharron Angle’s supporters, but I’m not about to dismiss them completely. So when they show a close race in Nevada’s third Congressional District, it’s definitely worth a look.

I don’t use the broad categories that some analysts use but if I did it would take a lot for me to move the Pennsylvania Senate race off of “Toss Up”.

Say what you want about Quinnipiac versus Rasmussen, but the latter’s latest doesn’t convince me.

The Cook Political Report has a good record, but some people have complained of a bias due to Cook’s personal political leanings. Well, if that’s too much for you, here’s another set of ratings from Key House Races.

The site was founded by Free Republic readers, so now those who mistrust Cook for whatever reason can now look to them. Soon I’ll run a simulation based on their ratings.