Unlikely Voter

Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.

Public Policy Polling hasn’t even looked in the direction of Indiana, but Rasmussen keeps plugging away at it. But every single time, Dan Coats is ahead of Brad Ellsworth by double figures.

This month is no exception, so this race is off the list of interesting races.

Yes, it’s the weekend but I thought I’d toss these two polls out there as they’re both important, close races in a big state.

Rasmussen has updated us on the Illinois races for Governor and Senator. I think both sides have something disappointing to see here.

There seems to be some disagreement in West Virginia over the proper way to fill the seat vacated by Robert C. Byrd. Some say the the Governor should make an appointment until November 2012, when a special election will be held to fill the seat until January 2013. The Attorney General is saying the special election must be held this November, and so Rasmussen polled the race.

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it.

I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

Following up on yesterday’s Field release which saw Democrats bleeding the Latino vote in California, this poll of the Senate race brings more personal bad news for Barbara Boxer: her job approval ratings have sunk underwater, joining her personal favorability ratings.

Before the primary, for a while when Meg Whitman was campaigning and Jerry Brown did not have to, Whitman took a lead in the race for Governor in California. It didn’t last, but the latest Field Poll is good news for her, and not just because it shows her with only a one point deficit.

Jim Geraghty points out a possible issue with PPP’s polling in Kentucky: PPP has Democrats taking a greater share of the 2010 electorate than the exit polls gave them in 2008.

That strikes me as most unlikely. Democrats were remarkably motivated in 2008, but it is Republicans who enjoy that status today. So I’m inclined to discount PPP’s result of a tie in Kentucky.

With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie.

Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?

PPP released its poll on the North Carolina Senate race that I’ve been waiting for since the twitter feed hinted the poll was coming.

Richard Burr leads, but it could be the race tilts slightly toward Elaine Marshall in the long run.

John Oxendine has long held the lead on the Republican side of the Georgia primary for Governor, but if InsiderAdvantage’s poll for WSB is accurate, that has changed.

It’s tied says this poll, and Karen Handel made it one.

Last week I was all over Rob Portman, explaining my theory for why he was having trouble with Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, and trying to tell him how to run his campaign.

I believe his answer would be that he leads this new Rasmussen.

In sports there’s an old saying that I like to quote: “It’s not a rivalry until both sides win.” I’m thinking it’d be wise to extend that to political polling, and say that a race isn’t truly close until both sides have led.

In that case, the Maryland Governor’s race is truly close now.