Unlikely Voter

It looks like the McCain/Hayworth primary in Arizona is basically over, as the Rocky Mountain Poll conducted by the Behavior Research Center a big lead and a big swing from earlier in the cycle.

Congressional Quarterly reports that Patriot Majority, an independent group which backs Democrats and raises money through ActBlue (“The online clearing house for Democratic action”), is circulating a poll they commissioned on the Nevada Senate race.

It has Harry Reid on top 44-40. Sadly though we have no other information on the poll, not even the margin of error, so it’s hard to say any thing about the poll but that I’d love to know the assumptions embedded in it, as were embedded in Joseph Cao’s poll making the rounds.

Certain critics either say or imply that Rasmussen Reports is skewed toward Republicans, just because this cycle he predicted early that the 2010 electorate would look nothing like that of 2008.

But that’s not the same as having a partisan bias, and in fact, comparing the latest Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race with SurveyUSA hints there is no such partisan bias to be found.

What seems to be the best poll this cycle for Harry Reid is out from Rasmussen Reports. No, people don’t like him anymore than they have this year, but the poll suggests people are beginning to dislike his opponent, Sharron Angle.

Public Policy Polling hasn’t even looked in the direction of Indiana, but Rasmussen keeps plugging away at it. But every single time, Dan Coats is ahead of Brad Ellsworth by double figures.

This month is no exception, so this race is off the list of interesting races.

Yes, it’s the weekend but I thought I’d toss these two polls out there as they’re both important, close races in a big state.

Rasmussen has updated us on the Illinois races for Governor and Senator. I think both sides have something disappointing to see here.

There seems to be some disagreement in West Virginia over the proper way to fill the seat vacated by Robert C. Byrd. Some say the the Governor should make an appointment until November 2012, when a special election will be held to fill the seat until January 2013. The Attorney General is saying the special election must be held this November, and so Rasmussen polled the race.

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it.

I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

Following up on yesterday’s Field release which saw Democrats bleeding the Latino vote in California, this poll of the Senate race brings more personal bad news for Barbara Boxer: her job approval ratings have sunk underwater, joining her personal favorability ratings.

Before the primary, for a while when Meg Whitman was campaigning and Jerry Brown did not have to, Whitman took a lead in the race for Governor in California. It didn’t last, but the latest Field Poll is good news for her, and not just because it shows her with only a one point deficit.

Jim Geraghty points out a possible issue with PPP’s polling in Kentucky: PPP has Democrats taking a greater share of the 2010 electorate than the exit polls gave them in 2008.

That strikes me as most unlikely. Democrats were remarkably motivated in 2008, but it is Republicans who enjoy that status today. So I’m inclined to discount PPP’s result of a tie in Kentucky.

With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie.

Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?

PPP released its poll on the North Carolina Senate race that I’ve been waiting for since the twitter feed hinted the poll was coming.

Richard Burr leads, but it could be the race tilts slightly toward Elaine Marshall in the long run.