Unlikely Voter

I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too.

Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul Wellstone funeral?

When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe.

Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.

We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon.

Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.

Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race.

We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.

We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP.

Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.

Randal Paul never has fully recovered from his initial unforced errors after winning the primary. Which is why Rasmussen Reports, which once showed him up 25 points, has him still lingering under 50 now, though still leading.

Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6.

I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.

This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.

Apparently Governor Sean Parnell is not getting a walk in the Alaska GOP Primary, because Rasmussen Reports carpet bombed that race with three Republicans and two Democrats.

I’d have made a Remember the Maine pun in the title but I think I did that last time. So we’ll cut the cheap gags and get right to the meat: Per the latest Rasmussen poll of the race, independent Eliot Cutler is making life tough for both parties, as nobody is over 40 in the race for Governor.

I don’t use the broad categories that some analysts use but if I did it would take a lot for me to move the Pennsylvania Senate race off of “Toss Up”.

Say what you want about Quinnipiac versus Rasmussen, but the latter’s latest doesn’t convince me.

Candidates matter, and while Dave Westlake polled way behind Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, it looks like Ron Johnson has a real shot against Russ Feingold.

In my estimation, the Republicans stand only a few competitive seats away from having a real shot at the Senate majority, so news like this is significant.

Of all the seats Republicans are defending this cycle, the one I think is most likely to flip is Ohio. Number two on that list is Missouri, so when I see results like Rasmussen’s on that race, I’m not surprised a bit.