Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Pomeroy’s not finished yet

Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race.

We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.

Rasmussen right now has Berg leading still, but only by a 49-46 (MoE 4.5) margin over Pomeroy. That does give Berg a 63% chance of still being ahead, but then that’s still over a one third shot for Pomeroy to keep his seat.

One would expect a seat like this one to be one of the more competitive House seats, as without a districting process there is no gerrymandering process. But incumbency matters even in statewide elections, so that Pomeroy would close in, or even take a lead here or there, is not a surprising thing.

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