Unlikely Voter

Sometimes, as in the case of Roe v. Wade, a change in the law of the land will result in a large change of public opinion in favor of the new change. Once the change is made, certain levels of resistance go away, and others just come to accept it.

Not so in the case of PPACA, Pew finds.

By request, I took a look at this poll by PPP for Daily Kos and SEIU. Markos Moulitsas himself is hyping the poll as showing an enthusiasm gap, which of course was one big indicator of the electoral wipeout we saw in 2010.

I think that he’s right, to a degree. However I read the figures as having two conclusions: First, the TEA party effect is still there, and Republicans are slightly more engaged than Democrats at this early point in the cycle. Second, the Union activism of this year is not having the same engagement effect with Democrats, that the TEA party, the ARRA, and the PPACA had with Republicans.

I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race.

And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.

When I heard yesterday that Missouri passed an initiative attacking the PPACA in state, and declaring that Missouri’s citizens are exempt from portions of it, I thought it would be interesting to compare that Proposition C’s results with polling on the issue in state. So let’s check.

I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results.

Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as the Republicans could ever hope for.

I’d have made a Remember the Maine pun in the title but I think I did that last time. So we’ll cut the cheap gags and get right to the meat: Per the latest Rasmussen poll of the race, independent Eliot Cutler is making life tough for both parties, as nobody is over 40 in the race for Governor.

I may suspect that Mason-Dixon’s polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal undercount Sharron Angle’s supporters, but I’m not about to dismiss them completely. So when they show a close race in Nevada’s third Congressional District, it’s definitely worth a look.

Public Policy Polling hasn’t even looked in the direction of Indiana, but Rasmussen keeps plugging away at it. But every single time, Dan Coats is ahead of Brad Ellsworth by double figures.

This month is no exception, so this race is off the list of interesting races.

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it.

I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

Rasmussen polled the Pennsylvania Senate race again, and Pat Toomey still leads.

Can Sestak break through and get another surge like his post-primary unity bounce?

We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling.

The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.

Wow. Just when I thought both Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports were both showing Richard Burr in good shape, Rasmussen shows his lead down to a single point.

What happened?

Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.”

But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?