Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Raese takes a lead in West Virginia

I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race.

And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.

Rasmussen had yet to show a lead for Republican John Raese over the incredibly popular Governor and Democrat Joe Manchin, but that’s precisely what PPP has just done. Raese leads the poll 46-43 (MoE 2.6).

Key figure: Manchin is still rather popular, with job approval way up at 59/32/9, and the sample correctly shows the state strong in registration for the Democrats at 51 D/37 R, but Barack Obama is terribly unpopular at 30/64/6, and the PPACA likewise is disliked at 27/63/11.

West Virginia has Democrats, but they’re not the same kind of Democrat we generally see in DC today. This may be the beginning of West Virginia’s in-state realignment to match the rest of the country.

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2 Responses to “Raese takes a lead in West Virginia”

  1. 3 point lead and 2.6 point MOE. What %R victory chance would you give that?

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