Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

On Missouri and the rejection of the PPACA

When I heard yesterday that Missouri passed an initiative attacking the PPACA in state, and declaring that Missouri’s citizens are exempt from portions of it, I thought it would be interesting to compare that Proposition C’s results with polling on the issue in state. So let’s check.

The one pollster I know hits this issue routinely is Public Policy Polling, so here is PPP’s latest from March. That’s quite a while back, but even then, support for “President Obama’s health care plan” was low in state, at 37% to 54% opposition.

Proposition C passed 71% to 29%. So if the Proposition was viewed by the voters as a referendum on the PPACA, then the law seems to have gotten even less popular than in March when it was eventually passed. Though one vote on one bill one time is a problematic way to make this determination, this vote seems to be a data point contradicting Nancy Pelosi’s prediction that when the bill passed, and people found out what was in it, support would grow.

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