I may suspect that Mason-Dixon’s polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal undercount Sharron Angle’s supporters, but I’m not about to dismiss them completely. So when they show a close race in Nevada’s third Congressional District, it’s definitely worth a look.
[More]Posts Tagged ‘ House ’
Freshman Democrat endangered in Nevada
By Neil Stevens on July 19, 2010
Another site to watch: Key House Races
By Neil Stevens on July 18, 2010
The Cook Political Report has a good record, but some people have complained of a bias due to Cook’s personal political leanings. Well, if that’s too much for you, here’s another set of ratings from Key House Races.
The site was founded by Free Republic readers, so now those who mistrust Cook for whatever reason can now look to them. Soon I’ll run a simulation based on their ratings.
Incumbency Matters: The Joseph Cao story
By Neil Stevens on July 14, 2010
Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer.
By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why was the election so close? Incumbency matters.
[More]Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
By Neil Stevens on July 13, 2010
Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.
[More]Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot
By Neil Stevens on July 1, 2010
So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide.
But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?
[More]Simulating the latest Cook House ratings
By Neil Stevens on June 26, 2010
On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.
[More]Wal-mart Moms: This year’s catch phrase?
By Neil Stevens on June 24, 2010
Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.”
But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?
[More]Landmark shift in the Gallup enthusiasm readings
By Neil Stevens on June 24, 2010
National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006.
Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.
[More]Democracy Corps expands on the NPR poll
By Neil Stevens on June 18, 2010
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did a poll for Democracy Corps, one that appears to be a followup on the joint GQR/Public Opinion Strategies poll done for NPR.
Does it have better news for Democrats?
[More]Flash poll on NC-02, Etheridge v Ellmers
By Neil Stevens on June 18, 2010
SurveyUSA polled North Carolina’s second House district for the Civitas Institute.
Presumably the idea here is to check on how Bob Etheridge, incumbent Democrat, is doing after an ambush video went a bit poorly for him.
[More]Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race
By Neil Stevens on June 16, 2010
South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.
[More]NPR polls 70 House races
By Neil Stevens on June 15, 2010
NPR had a poll done of what they call the 60 most competitive House seats held by Democrathttp://unlikelyvoter.com/wp-admin/options-media.phps, as well as the 10 most competitive held by Republicans. However the poll wasn’t done seat by seat, but rather in three groups: The top 30 of the Democrats, the bottom 30 of the Democrats, and the 10 Republicans.
Let’s see just how far each group is swinging compared with 2008, and try to guess what that means for the country.
[More]Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
By Neil Stevens on June 7, 2010
Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.
[More]