Posts Tagged ‘ House ’
I’ve given up on polling of individual House districts. Even if we see more than one poll of a given race, it’s usually all from the same pollster for the same client, a local newspaper or media alliance. These polls are erratic and without multiple sources to verify the figures, it’s hard to draw value from them.[More]
It’s October. The baseball games start to count for more, and in the National League where men are men, and players play on the field, the games become riveting managerial duels. Yes, I know I just lost readers. My Dodgers are home now and I can say what I want.
The polling is also getting more exciting though, as even the Gallup Poll is moving to a Likely Voter model. Let’s see where we are versus last week’s 49 seat Republican gain.[More]
It’s technically Tuesday morning early as I write this, but I’m going to use the polls released on Monday, so this will be filed as this Monday’s projection update, as always built with generic ballot polls from Real Clear Politics.
Last week the Republicans fell off from historic gains to a result with a small majority. Let’s see if the trend continues on down or not.[More]
By Neil Stevens on September 22, 2010
Nate Silver at the New York Times suggested yesterday that generic ballot polling might underestimate how well the Democrats will do in November.
Henry Olson at NRO countered by describing how it might shade the other way.
I think it’s the best tool we’ve got, and partisan bias is somewhere in the middle. Here’s why.[More]
Another week, another look at where the generic ballot polls are taking us! Last week’s House update had the Republicans gaining 60 seats in the House of Representatives, truly a historic gain wiping out the last two elections’ worth of gains for the Democrats.
But with all the new polls out since, let’s see where we are now.[More]