Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ House ’

Herseth Sandlin fights back?

By on September 10, 2010

I’d written off Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in her run for re-election in the South Dakota At-Large House seat. Poll after poll has been very friendly to Republican Kristi Noem.

But if this new Rasmussen isn’t an outlier, then I was as wrong as you can be.

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Just a week ago, the big story from Gallup was that the Republicans had hit an all-time high lead in their poll. I covered it despite questioning the poll in the past. Everyone covered it.

But now, suddenly, in the Gallup poll the race is even? How can that be, and what does it mean?

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As I hinted yesterday, it is now time to update my House projection. My last comprehensive review gave Republicans 52 seats over 2008, but let’s see how far the Swingometer needles move this time, as even I have been surprised by how far some of these new Generic Ballots have shifted toward Republicans.

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I didn’t know if Real Clear Politics would give me any new polls to discuss on Labor Day, but we actually have two interesting ones today: two new generic ballots to feed into the Swingometer, holding us over to my next big Generic Ballot roundup.

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I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable.

But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge than even today’s Rasmussen’s GOP +6 (notwithstanding the alleged House Effect of the latter).

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As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s.

Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, though from right now and not from 2008. I expect these popular analysts still to be too cautious to project a big Republican win, but let’s find out.

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Swingometer Update

By on August 24, 2010

The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately.

As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.

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I was busy today on my Senate projection, but over at Hot Air’s Greenroom Patrick Ishmael updated his House projection yesterday.

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At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice.

And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.

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There’s something to be said for consistency. And no matter who hires Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to gauge the House outlook for Democrats, bad news seems to come back.

That consistency continues with GQR’s poll of “voters,” both likely and not, for Citizen Opinion, H/T to Liberty Central.

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