Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Fox News meets the Swingometer

Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues.

I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.

For the House generic ballot, the result we see is 47% for the Republicans, 36% for the Democrats. Republicans split 88-3, Democrats go 84-10, but Independents decide the day by favoring Republicans 43-20. Once we boil it down to a two-party vote, excluding Other candidates and the Undecideds, here’s what we get:

2008 two party split5644
Fox two party split July 284357

This will be among the largest Swingometer results I’ve yet seen since its introduction. Fox/Opinion Dynamics takes us from D+12 in 2008 to R+14 in 2010, for a 26 point swing. When I first glanced at this poll last night, I wondered if it would show a 75 seat gain for Republicans.

So, plugging 26 into the Swingometer, we check and see that it’s not quite 75. No, this poll projects a 67 seat Republican gain, for a 245-190 House. For context, Democrats won a 257-178 House in 2008, making this projected result nearly as lopsided as that big win, and more so than the 233-202 win for Nancy Pelosi in 2006.

Of course, as always, the Swingometer most likely under-projects the actual results should this poll accurately reflect how Americans will vote in November. The Swingometer is a simple tool, and has embedded in it several factors from the 2008 climate such as recruiting and retirements. All the Swingometer does is look at the actual 2008 results in every seat and move them, so where one party recruits better or the other retires more, the Swingometer will likely underproject a wave.

So we might see that R+75 seat gain yet.


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