Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Patrick Ishmael updates his House projection

I was busy today on my Senate projection, but over at Hot Air’s Greenroom Patrick Ishmael updated his House projection yesterday.

As I understand his methodology, which seems to have inspired KeyHouseRaces.com, he takes the ratings of various public analysts, arranges them on a scale of -3 (Republican strongly favored) to 3 (Democrat strongly favored), and averages them across the analysts. Those averages he then charts to see how those move over time and across the most competitive seats.

Right now, Ishmael’s best guess is a 52 seat gain for Republicans, a result generally in line with the Swingometer‘s verdicts on recent generic ballot polling, and resembling the 54 seat gain Republicans saw in 1994.


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