Unlikely Voter

Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6.

I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!

[Updated at the bottom at 3PM Pacific Time.]

The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to.

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.

This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.

Apparently Governor Sean Parnell is not getting a walk in the Alaska GOP Primary, because Rasmussen Reports carpet bombed that race with three Republicans and two Democrats.

I’d have made a Remember the Maine pun in the title but I think I did that last time. So we’ll cut the cheap gags and get right to the meat: Per the latest Rasmussen poll of the race, independent Eliot Cutler is making life tough for both parties, as nobody is over 40 in the race for Governor.

As we cross past midnight in Georgia, it becomes primary election day in that state. So let’s look at one more poll of the Republican side of the Governor’s race. There’s almost certainly going to be a primary runoff, but with three credible candidates and two spots, somebody’s going to be left out when the music stops.

According to Mason Dixon the one left out will be Nathan Deal.

I may suspect that Mason-Dixon’s polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal undercount Sharron Angle’s supporters, but I’m not about to dismiss them completely. So when they show a close race in Nevada’s third Congressional District, it’s definitely worth a look.

I don’t use the broad categories that some analysts use but if I did it would take a lot for me to move the Pennsylvania Senate race off of “Toss Up”.

Say what you want about Quinnipiac versus Rasmussen, but the latter’s latest doesn’t convince me.

The Cook Political Report has a good record, but some people have complained of a bias due to Cook’s personal political leanings. Well, if that’s too much for you, here’s another set of ratings from Key House Races.

The site was founded by Free Republic readers, so now those who mistrust Cook for whatever reason can now look to them. Soon I’ll run a simulation based on their ratings.

The Badger Poll is out from the University of Wisconsin, and its results for the Senate race have me at a loss.

If we take this poll at face value, then Russ Feingold is in worse trouble than anyone imagined, even after the rise of Ron Johnson. But can we believe it?

For months the Cook Political Report has been releasing charts of competitive House races at a rate of about one per week. We’re 16 days into July, though, and the last one to come out was on June 24.

Why is that? Did everyone go on vacation, or is Cook having to re-run every race without Research 2000 polls? I’m not a subscriber, but judging by this Senate update which I’m told is disavowing R2k makes me think.

Just as Ohio and Missouri are the top two Republican Senate seats I would predict could flip, Pennsylvania is a top seat held by Democrats I could easily see fall the other way*.

So when Quinnipiac says Joe Sestak tied Pat Toomey again, I’m not surprised a second.

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?