Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Archive for June, 2010

I’m in the mood to see how the Senate race nationwide looks right now, but I don’t want to rely on RCP or Cook or someone else. I’m going to do it myself. Take it for what it’s worth.

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Vitter looking safe

By on June 30, 2010

David Vitter appears to be safe. The latest Rasmussen poll of the Louisiana Senate Race has been sitting here for days on my computer, but I just hadn’t gotten around to posting it because it doesn’t appear to be a competitive race.

But let’s get it over with.

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I need to make more direct links to Real Clear Politics. I rely on them heavily for their poll aggregation. I just load up the Recent Polls page and I get post ideas all the time.

So here’s a direct link: RCP points out that in the latest Rasmussen poll of the Kentucky Senate Race, there really isn’t any change. The race is stable, with Randal Paul on top.

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We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling.

The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.

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Ipsos polled the California Senate race for Reuters and much as I’ve said in the past, Barbara Boxer still comes out looking weak, even though she remains slimly ahead of Carly Fiorina.

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Fraud at Research 2000

By on June 29, 2010

There are ledes, and there are ledes. This one at Daily Kos literally dropped my jaw:

I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk.

The report appears to deliver, too.

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SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out.

We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.

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Via Real Clear Politics we see that Magellan Strategies polled the Arizona Senate Primary.

It’s looking very good for John McCain, and JD Hayworth needs a lifeline, quickly.

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On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.

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Rossi Ties Murray

By on June 26, 2010

It’s the weekend, so I will be brief, but I saw this poll and thought I’d mention it: After so many polls showing him competitive or even close, Dino Rossi has registered a tie with Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race.

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