Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Senate ’

Fresh Washington Volatility

By on October 14, 2010

I still have the Washington Senate race as one of the four closest, despite Republican Dino Rossi taking a decent lead over Democrat Patty Murray in recent polling. This is why: both candidates have been capable of rattling off good polls, and one new result at any time can come out in favor of either candidate.

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Tuesday is not only Soylent Green day, but it is also Senate Projection day now. Last week was pretty big for Republicans, and if the trend from then continues, we could see +8 be the projection, as well as a double digit chance of a majority shift.

In theory some races should start to tighten and others should just blow wide open, constraining the options Republicans have to gain further. But will the theory carry over to practice?

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Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each:

Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West Virginia between Republican John Raese and Democrat Joe Manchin.

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No movement yet in Delaware

By on October 12, 2010

To my eye, the polling in the Delaware Senate race is shown no movement whatsoever, even in light of Republican Christine O’Donnell’s famous start to her television ad campaign. Democrat Chris Coons is still comfortably ahead of her.

There’s a chance that future ads and coming debates will change the race of course, but as of now I’m thinking that the fat lady is going to catch a flight to Delaware after doing her warmup in Ohio.

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Right after the primaries in New York, when Republicans finally found out that Joe DioGuardi would be going against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, they got a big bounce in the polls.

Judging by the new Quinnipiac, that bounce had a finite lifespan, and that lifespan was not particularly long.

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I said it over and over again when Democrat Harry Reid went on a polling run, and I will say it now when Republican Sharron Angle has gone on a run: trading tiny leads back and forth is the sign of a tied race with random statistical noise around it, not any genuine changes in public opinion or “Big Mo.”

So yes, despite the new Rasmussen poll, in my mind this race is tied.

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Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones.

We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for Governor in Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, and Florida. I told you it was a lot.

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The long string of single digit gaps we’ve been seeing in the Connecticut Senate polling has been halted, but Republican Linda McMahon is still keeping surprisingly competitive with Democrat Richard Blumenthal.

Three new polls have opened the race up a bit from before. PPP, Fox News/POR, and CT Capitol Report/MRG don’t give McMahon reason to cheer relative to last week, as she fell back some, but the race does not appear to be entirely out of reach for her at this point.

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Every time one candidate or the other rattles off a few polls in his or her favor in the Nevada Senate race, some people rush to call it momentum or a real change in the race. I disagree.

I see this new Fox/POR poll as just another random bounce in a race that’s staying even between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid.

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With the House update done, it is as always time to finish the new Senate update. Last week the pace of Republican gains rebounded strong as the party made gains in surprising places. The question this week is: will they hold, or will Democrats pull that projected gain back to six?

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