Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

The Nevada Senate race keeps right on bouncing

Every time one candidate or the other rattles off a few polls in his or her favor in the Nevada Senate race, some people rush to call it momentum or a real change in the race. I disagree.

I see this new Fox/POR poll as just another random bounce in a race that’s staying even between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid.

So yes, Angle +3 is an important result for her, in that it keeps the race even in the big picture. So while it is useful to note this poll at Angle 49, Reid 46 (MoE 3), I’m not more going to characterize this as a breakthrough for her, than I did call it a breakthrough for Reid when the last poll put him up five.

I just hope we avoid a recount. I hate recounts. I think the lawsuits and accusations undermine our system of government, and I’d rather avoid them.

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