Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

McMahon loses some ground to Blumenthal

The long string of single digit gaps we’ve been seeing in the Connecticut Senate polling has been halted, but Republican Linda McMahon is still keeping surprisingly competitive with Democrat Richard Blumenthal.

Three new polls have opened the race up a bit from before. PPP, Fox News/POR, and CT Capitol Report/MRG don’t give McMahon reason to cheer relative to last week, as she fell back some, but the race does not appear to be entirely out of reach for her at this point.

If I were to approach this race as I do in my Senate projections, here’s how the math would shake out: Per PPP the race is 53-41 (MoE 3.4) for a 97/3 split Blumenthal’s way.

Moving on to POR/Rasmussen, we get a 52-42 (MoE 3) situation, for a 96/4 split.

The third new poll from the CT Capitol Report by the Merriman River Group pegs the race at 52-45 (MoE 2.4). That tiny margin of error mitigates the benefit McMahon would get from a smaller deficit, so we still see a powerful 93/7 split Blumenthal’s way.

But if I were doing my projection I would also include the other recent polls, including the one from Quinnipiac, which said 49-46 (MoE 3) for a 70/30 split. I’d also include Rasmussen Reports on the race with its 50-45 (MoE 4.5) showing, and a 72/28 split.

All five are likely voter polls, so all five splits go into the average equally. Out from there comes a mean of 14.4, which I’d just go ahead and round to 15% so that I don’t have to constantly update every single race when tiny, random fluctuations occur. 15% isn’t great, but it’s in the realm of possibility.

The key is going to be whether McMahon can narrow the gap again, or if Blumenthal can keep his distance this month.

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