Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Polls closing back up in Washington

Democrat Patty Murray had a great week earlier this month. The Elway Poll and the CNN/Time poll both coming in and giving her nine point leads over Republican Dino Rossi changed some feelings about the race.

But SurveyUSA already came in since to show the race closing, and now Fox News/POR coming in similarly, it’s pretty easy to say the race is close to a tie now.

After all, this new Fox/POR poll very nearly is a tie: Murray 48-Rossi 47 (MoE 3). My math shows that as a 57/43 split Murray’s way. Even that relatively low margin of error can’t nudge the probabilities far in favor of the Democrat.

I would not be surprised if the next Rasmussen poll were something like a tie or Rossi +1, bringing my next projection pretty close to 50/50.

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