Unlikely Voter

People love general election matchup polling. For some it’s the ultimate way to decide which candidate is the best choice to win a primary. But even if that’s true, it is possible to run such polls too soon.

Right now, it’s too soon to poll the 2016 Presidential race.

Hey look, a post!

While I’m sure everyone involved is so proud of Vanderbilt’s data filtering app for its recent poll of Tennessee showing Barack Obama still losing in one of the two states he ran behind John Kerry in, but the problem is that the details are made less transparent.

What a shame.

Rather than look at just one state, I thought it might be interesting to see what Swingometer has to say about a national poll, and as it turns out, the most recent national poll is the tracking poll from Rasmussen Reports.

This one is much better news for Mitt Romney than the North Carolina poll was.

North Carolina was President Obama’s narrowest win in 2008. I’ve long thought that the state would be the quickest, easiest pickup for Republicans in 2012. As the final matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney shapes up, early polling begins to confirm that guess.

I’m back. The last ten days have seen me move cross country and start to settle in to a new home and a new job.

While I was gone, we had some primaries. So it’s high time we took a look at the delegate situation. Of course, since I started writing this post, word has come out that Rick Santorum is exiting the race, so let’s see if that was the right idea. [More]

Quinnipiac University put out a pair of polls this week I thought were interesting to note. Now, I have and still do think that it’s too soon to test general election Presidential matchups, so don’t think I’m reading a lot into these. But apart from that, I find it odd that Mitt Romney is doing better in Pennsylvania than he is in Ohio.

Forgive me for venturing out from strict horserace poll analysis, but given the the administration’s recent moves on coal power, I couldn’t help but wonder how that might affect the President in swing states, should prices rise in coal-burning states.

A check I made this morning suggests that the answer is yes, if coal is an issue in this election, it could swing close states.

Since we last looked at the delegate situation, Rick Santorum has won two state primaries, and Mitt Romney picked up a state caucus, a territorial primary, and a territorial caucus.

Santorum showing the ability to win state primaries is good news for him, but he must now convert that ability into delegates, or this race may be effectively over anyway.

Some opponents of Mitt Romney as Republican nominee have long insisted that once it’s a two-man race for the nomination, Romney will lose.

Saturday’s results suggest otherwise. Even on a good night for Rick Santorum, he only treaded water.

When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority.

Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.

The Republican party has held five primaries this cycle to date: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Mitt Romney won the statewide vote in four of them, including the last three.

Super Tuesday tomorrow will shake all that up, of course. But Ohio looks to be one state Romney may come back to win from Rick Santorum.

Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum.

I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

Last week it looked possible that Rick Santorum would keep on winning in February with a big lead in Michigan and a possible lead change in Arizona.

New polling this week though suggests Mitt Romney’s back, and could regain control of the race.