Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Pennsylvania ’

Just as Ohio and Missouri are the top two Republican Senate seats I would predict could flip, Pennsylvania is a top seat held by Democrats I could easily see fall the other way*.

So when Quinnipiac says Joe Sestak tied Pat Toomey again, I’m not surprised a second.

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Back in May, I pondered the voter modeling implications of Pennsylvania Governor’s race, noting just how differently Quinnipiac showed the race from some other pollster.

It’s now July though, and Quinnipiac shows effectively no change from back then.

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Rasmussen polled the Pennsylvania Senate race again, and Pat Toomey still leads.

Can Sestak break through and get another surge like his post-primary unity bounce?

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Yup, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are tied again, says Public Policy Polling.

The only way I saw Toomey keeping his previous lead was if the Job Offer controversy heated up and implicated Sestak in wrongdoing. It seems clear to me that the whole thing has blown over, and now the electorate has shifted back toward the tie I expect it to be from now to November.

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We’re in for the long haul in the Pennsylvania Senate race, because I honestly do expect this one to be in the toss-up range from now to Election Day, but that doesn’t mean we don’t get to check in on the polls obsessively the whole time looking for clues.

Today: Rasmussen updates on the race.

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Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees.

I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the race itself.

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Research 2000 very much wants you to know that they do polls for newspapers in St. Louis, Lexington, Fort Wayne, South Bend, and Reno. They don’t want you to think of them primarily as doing polls for left-wing activist outlets Daily Kos and now Democracy for America, the group founded to continue the work of former Presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Someone should tell Daily Kos and Nate Silver this though, as they beat the wardrums against R2k competitor Rasmussen Reports, that R2k is trying to look less partisan, not more.

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Per Real Clear Politics there were six pollsters who took on the Pennsylvania primary, which Joe Sestak won handily by 8, 54-46 over Arlen Specter.

Let’s see who got it right, and also give credit to a particular pollster where it is due.

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One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?

Let’s dig in.

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Pennsylvania update

By on May 12, 2010

We’re less than a week away from primary election day in Pennsylvania, so let’s take a look at the latest polling news from the House Special election to replace Jack Murtha, the Senate primary for Arlen Specter’s seat, and a surprisingly interesting House race.

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