Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Comparing two Pennsylvania Polls

Yesterday we looked at a poll from Public Policy Polling, but today we have a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

Amusingly enough, while we’ve seen Quinnipiac overcount Democrats in Ohio, their results for Specter and Sestak come in just under PPP’s findings.

That’s right. Quinnipiac gives Toomey the same levels of support against Specter (46) and Sestak (42) that PPP found. However the Democrats each lost two points. Specter dropped from 43 to 41, and Sestak fell from 36 to 34.

The Margin of Error for the Quinnipiac poll is 2.6 versus 3.2 for the PPP poll.

Of course nobody thinks that the Democrats just collapsed a bit in Pennsylvania. This is just random fluctuation. Take this same poll three times in a row and you’ll get three similar, but slightly different, results. It’s just chance that Toomey didn’t budge.

Toomey’s ahead for the moment, but I just know we’re all going to be hanging on every poll of this race from now to November.

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