By request, we take a look at a poll by Wilson Research Strategies via the Palm Beach Post covering Florida’s 22nd congressional district.
[More]Posts Tagged ‘ House ’
West makes a race of it against Klein
By Neil Stevens on June 7, 2010
Lean times for Spratt?
By Neil Stevens on May 27, 2010
According to an internal poll of Mick Mulvaney’s discovered by National Journal, the South Carolina Republican has gained 11 points on 14 term Democrat John Spratt of the 5th district.
If the Chairman of the Budget Committee can’t use his seniority to keep his seat safe, then I would expect to see a wave nationwide.
[More]How to use the Swingometers
By Neil Stevens on May 22, 2010
Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.
Here’s an explanation.
[More]Swingometer now suggests 33 seat Republican gain
By Neil Stevens on May 18, 2010
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.
Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.
[More]Pennsylvania update
By Neil Stevens on May 12, 2010
We’re less than a week away from primary election day in Pennsylvania, so let’s take a look at the latest polling news from the House Special election to replace Jack Murtha, the Senate primary for Arlen Specter’s seat, and a surprisingly interesting House race.
[More]Simulating the House election via Cook [Updated]
By Neil Stevens on May 3, 2010
The Cook Political Report’s House projections are rather conservative. In 2008 only one flip was not marked competitive, and that was Louisiana’s 2nd CD, in which Joseph Cao upset William Jefferson. I naturally give him a pass on that seat.
What do Cook’s 2010 projections say, and what do we learn from them?
[More]More excitement in the North Dakota House race
By Neil Stevens on April 27, 2010
First the Texas and Maryland Governor’s races are closing, and now so is the North Dakota at-large House race, per Rasmussen.
Even in a wave year, not every race moves the same way. Ultimately, candidates matter because ours is not a party list system.
[More]Florida Special Election: Lynch v Deutch
By Neil Stevens on March 28, 2010
Also by request I’ve taken a look at the Florida special election coming up next month for District 19, filling in the seat vacated by Robert Wexler.
Sadly I can find no polling for this (special) general election race. Given that Wexler’s closest race was his first one in 1996 when he beat the Republican 66-34, and additionally this is in the part of the state most friendly to Democrats, pollsters just don’t expect this race to be close.
[More]Sodrel v. Hill: Round 5
By Neil Stevens on March 28, 2010
By request I’ve looked up the race in Indiana’s 9th District, which appears like it’s going to be a fourth rematch between former Rep. Mike Sodrel and Rep. Baron Hill. Hill voted for the PPACA, so national Republicans are sure to target him in this usually-Republican state that barely went for President Obama in 2008.
[More]Walberg v Schauer, Michigan 7
By Neil Stevens on March 20, 2010
In the possible rematch in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, there seems to be no independent polling yet. By request I looked for polls on this race, but for the budding 2010 matchup of Tim Walberg and Mark Schauer all I find is one internal poll.
Walberg’s is good for him showing 46 R/37 D/5.6 MoE for a 78% win rate for the Republican. I expect real polling only after the primary for a race like this.