Unlikely Voter

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First the Texas and Maryland Governor’s races are closing, and now so is the North Dakota at-large House race, per Rasmussen.

Even in a wave year, not every race moves the same way. Ultimately, candidates matter because ours is not a party list system.

In March, things were great for Rick Berg, Republican challenger to incumbent and Democrat Earl Pomeroy. Up 51-44 (MoE 4.5), he had a 78% chance of being ahead at that point, and the momentum seemed to be going his way.

But now he’s come off that high. It’s looking like the Berg reading from March was a bit on the high side for him. Because now he’s come down to 49 while Pomeroy went up a tick to 45, dropping Berg’s lead probability to 67.

Obviously Republicans will still expect this race to yield a pickup, but Democrats must feel better that the race isn’t suddenly turning into a rout as it appeared last month.