Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Toomey comfortably ahead, says two (and a half) polls

Good afternoon. My life gets much easier when polls agree, and that’s the state of the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania. We have two polls out directly comparing Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, as well as a poll on the Governor’s race.

All three favor Pat Toomey by a healthy margin.

First, we check Public Policy Polling. With the introduction of the use of Likely voters to the poll, now PPP shows Pat Toomey taking a clear lead: 45-36 (MoE 4.1). I show the race at 86/14 in favor of Toomey per this poll.

For confirmation we next look at Rasmussen Reports, whose new poll also shows a 9 point lead: 46-37 (MoE 4). Only one point off the other poll for both candidates, with nearly the same margin of error, this one also is an 86/14 split.

So Toomey is clearly ahead, and I think the other major statewide race favors him as well. Rasmussen also checked the race for Governor, and Republican Tom Corbett still leads Dan Onorato, now 48-38 (MoE 4). Onorato has been behind the whole way.

Onorato’s failure to be competitive is not what Democrats need to hear to reverse their malaise that threatens to turn the 2010 elections into a historically large wave for the Republicans. And that slide will help in particular Pat Toomey stay ahead of Joe Sestak.


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