Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida

Tired of Florida yet? Too bad! Just about every public pollster is hitting the state comprehensively, so like a hanging chad this race will stick around at least until next week. And after Quinnipiac yesterday went contrarian on the primaries, today the firm goes contrarian on the general.

I call this new poll contrarian because it effectively projects no difference in the general elections no matter how the major primaries go:

Charlie Crist (I)Marco Rubio (R)Democrat
Margin of Error is 3
3932Kendrick Meek 16
4032Jeff Greene 15

Yes, we do see a slight loss for the Democrats when Greene is the nominee, which is the direction I project, but the single point of movement is inconclusive. The apparent voter indifference to the candidates is even easier to see in the Governor’s race:

Alex Sink (D)RepublicanBud Chiles (I)
Margin of Error is 3
31Rick Scott 2912
33Bill McCollum 2912

It’s odd to see the Republican and Independent drawing precisely identical support levels in two matchups like that, but it happens. It’s as though the Quinnipiac survey is causing those surveyed to treat the primary candidates (between both Republicans for Governor and both Democrats for Senate) as generic partisan candidates.

But time and again, history has shown that specific candidates matter in specific states for specific races, showing an ability to win or lose when a generic partisan candidate would do the opposite. So honestly I’m skeptical of this poll having any predictive value.

Comments

One Response to “More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida”

  1. For me, it doesn’t pass the “smell test”. Look at the level of support for Rubio versus Scott and McCullom — basically the same, around 30%. This is essentially the base level of GOP support in the state, a pretty good measure of the number of GOP voters I would think.

    But now, if these results are true, Quinnipiac wants us to believe that (as you put above) independent voters will move largely from the Democratic ranks to Crist *regardless of the Democratic candidate for Senator* and, then, on the next question (Gubernatorial race), move in lock-step back to Alex Sink away from Chiles.

    It doesn’t sound believably when written out: apparently in Florida, there exist a large portion of *Democratic voters* (mind you, not GOP) that are going to pull the lever for Sink yet move over to Crist — former GOP Crist that is — rather than vote for Meek or Greene. This is too much like PA and Specter, I just refuse to believe it until I see it happen.

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