Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Carly Fiorina maintains SurveyUSA lead

We’re seeing a real discrepancy in the California Senate polling. SurveyUSA’s last two results were Republican Carly Fiorina ahead 5 and and now 2, while Rasmussen Reports has had Democrat Barbara Boxer up 5.

Rasmussen has Fiorina behind with leaners 44-49 (MoE 4) for a 26% chance Fiorina leads, while SUSA has Fiorina up 48-46 (MoE 4.2) for a 59% chance, over double Rasmussen’s. I would love to know why this is, but Rasmussen doesn’t give us any crosstabs, only favorabilities, but SUSA doesn’t give us favorabilities. So we’re stuck.

All we know is that Rasmussen, of the alleged Republican House Effect, is still showing Fiorina behind 5, but SurveyUSA is consistently now showing Fiorina ahead. That showing of Boxer at 42 was clearly anomalously low, but the Democrat still trails. It will be interesting to see how long this gap between the pollsters persists.

In other results in this new SurveyUSA poll, Meg Whitman has a clear lead over Jerry Brown, 47-40. Whitman wins women 45-44, which I find interesting. If even a strong position in favor of abortion only brings the Republican into a virtual tie with the Democrat among women, then abortion is not the only issue driving the gender gap at all.

Comments

One Response to “Carly Fiorina maintains SurveyUSA lead”

  1. Rasmussen’s numbers are also all over the map in NV (look at their SEN polls over the last several months). I must say, I’m starting to lose a little bit of confidence in Ras in some of these state polls…

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