Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Two Republicans who are going to be Governors

There was a time when I thought about Nikki Haley’s campaign for governor every day. I’d scramble to find whatever polling I could get my hands on and read the news to try to explain any trends I might be seeing in the polls.

Now, though, the South Carolina Governor’s race joins that of Republican Brian Sandoval’s in Nevada as non-competitive barring a major event (or for Haley, another dirty trick).

In fact, even if Democrat Vincent Sheheen were to attempt a dirty trick of the kind Andre Bauer tried against Haley, I’m not sure he could overcome his deficit seen in Rasmussen’s newest poll of that race. 52-36 (MoE 4.5) just isn’t competitive.

Rasmussen isn’t even bothering to get that MoE all the way down to 4 as with the more interesting races lately. It just doesn’t matter. Even at 4.5 there’s only a 4% chance that Sheheen could be leading and get a poll this bad. Multiply in enough polls with him way behind and Sheheen eventually will become more likely to win a South Carolina Education Lottery jackpot than to become Governor of South Carolina.

In this space I’ve suggested that the Mason Dixon polls for the Las Vegas Review-Journal have slanted against Sharron Angle, but Brian Sandoval is looking just fine in his race against Rory Reid, son of the Senator. 53-31 (MoE 4), combined with all the similar polls before it, also starts to make Reid more likely to go pull two straight royal flushes on a video poker machine on the Las Vegas strip, than he is to become Governor of Nevada.

Sure, I could go find pictures of Reid and Sandoval to combine with those of Sheheen and Haley above, but really, why bother when it’s unlikely I will ever again need to discuss either race? That time is much better spent finding, reading, and writing about more interesting polls.

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