Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Boxer falls behind Fiorina, Whitman even with Brown

SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right.

So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.

Boxer and Brown have been up in other polls, but this one shows Fiorina with a real lead. 47-42 (MoE 4.1) certainly isn’t a runaway advantage, but a 72/28 lead probability split has to be among the best polling results any Republican has managed statewide against Barbara Boxer in her entire career. She’s certainly faced no real threats in any previous re-election chance.

Meanwhile Whitman has essentially tied up the race with Brown, as her 44-43 result creates a virtually even 54/46 lead probability split. We don’t rightly know who’s ahead for Governor per this poll, in essence. This is one of those polls that can safely be called a “statistical tie.” That, in itself, is an improvement for Whitman who fell off her poling leads in the matchup against Brown starting around primary day.

The Senate race though, it’s not at all a tie according to this poll. Fiorina has shown a lead for just the second time in a major poll, even counting results before the primary. She sure has come a long way from March 2009, when Field had her down 55-25.

Possibly the key demographics? According to KPIX, Fiorina’s lead in the central valley, one of America’s great agricultural regions and the home of the Delta Smelt, has tripled. And for Boxer, her support among the critical Independent bloc has declined.

If that trend continues, we’ll be seeing plenty more leads for her after this one.

Comments

One Response to “Boxer falls behind Fiorina, Whitman even with Brown”

  1. The Cross tabs are very interesting in this poll. For all the Democrats bragging about their “Emerging Majority of Hispanics and Young People” Fiorina holds Boxer to a 46-40 lead in the former and a 45-43 lead in the latter. In CALIFORNIA.

    Whitman even manages to win under-34 voters by 5 points too–it looks like there’s hope for this state yet!

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