I didn’t know if Real Clear Politics would give me any new polls to discuss on Labor Day, but we actually have two interesting ones today: two new generic ballots to feed into the Swingometer, holding us over to my next big Generic Ballot roundup.
[More]Posts Tagged ‘ Generic Ballot ’
Swingometer does not rest on Labor Day
By Neil Stevens on September 6, 2010
Gallup: Generic ballot shows record Republican lead
By Neil Stevens on August 30, 2010
I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable.
But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge than even today’s Rasmussen’s GOP +6 (notwithstanding the alleged House Effect of the latter).
[More]Swingometer Update
By Neil Stevens on August 24, 2010
The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately.
As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
[More]Gallup retreats and I claim victory
By Neil Stevens on August 3, 2010
Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention.
It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the poll has in just two weeks shown a remarkable 9 point swing toward the GOP.
[More]Fox News meets the Swingometer
By Neil Stevens on July 30, 2010
Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues.
I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
[More]Gallup caught lying about the generic ballot trend [Updated 3PM PT]
By Neil Stevens on July 21, 2010
[Updated at the bottom at 3PM Pacific Time.]
The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to.
[More]Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge
By Neil Stevens on July 20, 2010
Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.
This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.
[More]Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
By Neil Stevens on July 13, 2010
Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.
[More]Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
By Neil Stevens on June 7, 2010
Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.
[More]Followup: The Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
By Neil Stevens on June 1, 2010
Rasmussen Reports came out with its generic ballot today, too. Having already explained in depth how I did Gallup’s, I’ll analyze the consequences of Rasmussen’s numbers in brief.
[More]Gallup generic ballot suggests 45 seat Republican gain
By Neil Stevens on June 1, 2010
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years.
Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.
[More]How to use the Swingometers
By Neil Stevens on May 22, 2010
Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.
Here’s an explanation.
[More]Swingometer now suggests 33 seat Republican gain
By Neil Stevens on May 18, 2010
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.
Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.
[More]