Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Swingometer does not rest on Labor Day

I didn’t know if Real Clear Politics would give me any new polls to discuss on Labor Day, but we actually have two interesting ones today: two new generic ballots to feed into the Swingometer, holding us over to my next big Generic Ballot roundup.

The first new generic we have is the ever-busy Rasmussen Reports at 48-36 for a whopping R+12 in the raw figures. If we boil it down to the two party split, it’s 57-43 for R+14.

The other generic is from Opinion Research for CNN. This one will get some attention as in the raw figures it has the GOP over 50, ahead 52-45. Again paring that down to the pure two party vote it becomes 54-46 for R+8.

Rasmussen swings us from 2008’s D+12 to R+12 for a 24 point swing. Swingometer says a 24 point swing from 2008 means a massive 64 seat Republican gain from 2008, resulting in a 242 R-193 D House majority.

CNN/OR’s result isn’t quite as drastic. Going from D+12 to R+8 is “only” a 20 point swing, and “only” a 57 seat gain over 2008 in the form of a 235 R-200 D House.

News like this can only continue to depress Democrats, and the CNN poll isn’t even using a likely voter model, instead just polling all registered voters.

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Comments

4 Responses to “Swingometer does not rest on Labor Day”

  1. Carolyn Wolthusen says:

    Thanks for the update, Neil. Happy (nonunion) Labor Day!

  2. JadedByPolitics says:

    Well, well, well, Mr. Neil, I do believe you are coming to my 80+ at a VERY quick pace :)

    • I sure wish I could say I was at 80. :)

      • As I’ve talked about previously, the Swingometer is missing a number of districts that will flip because they are currently ‘open seats’. I think the count is something like a 6-12 district undercount by the Swingometer. So your R+64 from Rasmussen would very likely be R+70 or more. With that in mind, you start to get close to Jaded’s R+80… ;)

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