Unlikely Voter

Candidates are running out of time to make moves this year. Last week the Republicans stayed just on the edge of gaining seven seats, though I thought some of that was due to some freak polls.

We’ll see now just how freaky they were.

For some time there the polling in the Connecticut Senate race was rather unstable. We were seeing polls with huge swings apart from each other every few days. I really had no clear path for evaluating it than to average the two and give Democrat Richard Blumenthal a medium lead over Republican Linda McMahon.

But including the new Rasmussen we’ve now seen four good polls in a row for Blumenthal. The race appears to be settling.

Good evening. We’re getting so very close to the end here, I may start running these more than once a week to see where they go. It depends on the interest level I see in that.

Last week it was Bloomberg filling in for Newsweek as the odd poll out, but now the original thing is here: Newsweek is back. We’ll see how far down it drags the overall average Republican gain.

Even though the West Virginia Senate race showed that sometimes a national trend can overcome local candidates, the candidates still matter.

The race for Governor in Maryland has turned out to be one of those. For some time the race was close, but while my back was turned it seems that Democrat Martin O’Malley is simply running away from Republican Robert Ehrlich.

As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome.

That said, I’m beginning to notice a pattern in the polling between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina that suggests serious, late-breaking movement in favor of the Republican. I see it in the way the polls are moving with their methodologies.

Quick hit to close the weekend: If the Florida Governor’s race isn’t close, as this new Sunshine State News/VSS poll shows in a 45-45 tie, then we’ll know the polls this year were out of calibration.

In particular, if Republican Rick Scott wins handily over Democrat Alex Sink, then the Democrats may have a long night.

I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling.

I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, so I can escape without complete embarrassment.

The last time Quinnipiac Uniersity covered the Pennsylvania Senate race, the result was right in the middle of the pack, and inline with every poll from mid-July to early October: a seven point lead for Republican Pat Toomey over Democrat Joe Sestak.

But now, just as PPP came out with its shocking Sestak lead, Q says the race is close.

I’m adding a fifth seat to my four close Senate battleground seats. I’d previously listed West Virginia, Washington, Illinois, and Nevada as the key battleground for the Senate as we approach election day, but it’s increasingly difficult for me to see a difference between Washington and California.

So, the race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina joins the list.

And it’s already time for the second installment of the new Tuesday version of my Senate projection. Republicans fell back a little after making new highs last week, but I can think of a few seats where Republicans might bounce back from that.

Then again, I can think of a race or two where the Democrats could regain more ground, so we shall see.

Republican Pat Toomey has been rather comfortable in the Pennsylvania Senate polling. He hit double digits in the last Rasmussen poll a week ago, and Democrat Joe Sestak hasn’t led a poll since one weird outlier in the middle of May.

For PPP to show Sestak up today is definitely surprising, and noteworthy, but it’s possible this is an outlier.

It’s crunch time. The lines are being drawn, the late, final strategies are forming, and voting is underway in many places (my own ballot is filled out and ready to mail). Last week all the polls fell into a fairly narrow band and gave Republicans historic gains.

So let’s see if that’s sustained, or if the Democrats are closing it up late.

I notice a trend: when people mock reasonable sample sizes (as though multiplying out 500 terms isn’t powerful enough math for anyone), it only seems to be when their preferred candidates are losing, and never the other way.