Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Flipping coins on the west coast

I’m adding a fifth seat to my four close Senate battleground seats. I’d previously listed West Virginia, Washington, Illinois, and Nevada as the key battleground for the Senate as we approach election day, but it’s increasingly difficult for me to see a difference between Washington and California.

So, the race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina joins the list.

For examples of how close the polling is in both of these races, first see Marist’s poll for McClatchy on the Washington race. Democrat Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi 48-47 (MoE 4). That’s basically a coin flip, and it’s now the fourth consecutive poll showing Rossi behind by only 3 points or less.

Compare that with SurveyUSA’s new poll of Califoria. Boxer leads 46-44 (MoE 4). At 60/40 it’s not in itself the same coinflip that the above race shows, but it’s rather close. It’s by far the closest California Senate race we’ve seen in the Boxer/Feinstein era.

Both of these races basically look like coin flips to me at this point. For two of the three west coast races to be that close is just another sign of what kind of wave we’re in this year.

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