Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ 2010 ’

As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old.

So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for Republican Carly Fiorina, and sure enough, we’re now seeing a tightening trend in the polling.

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Fresh Washington Volatility

By on October 14, 2010

I still have the Washington Senate race as one of the four closest, despite Republican Dino Rossi taking a decent lead over Democrat Patty Murray in recent polling. This is why: both candidates have been capable of rattling off good polls, and one new result at any time can come out in favor of either candidate.

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We now enter week two of The Hill’s series of district by district polls in pre-selected close races. Week one had some good results for Republicans and week two seems to say much of the same.

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Tuesday is not only Soylent Green day, but it is also Senate Projection day now. Last week was pretty big for Republicans, and if the trend from then continues, we could see +8 be the projection, as well as a double digit chance of a majority shift.

In theory some races should start to tighten and others should just blow wide open, constraining the options Republicans have to gain further. But will the theory carry over to practice?

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Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each:

Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West Virginia between Republican John Raese and Democrat Joe Manchin.

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No movement yet in Delaware

By on October 12, 2010

To my eye, the polling in the Delaware Senate race is shown no movement whatsoever, even in light of Republican Christine O’Donnell’s famous start to her television ad campaign. Democrat Chris Coons is still comfortably ahead of her.

There’s a chance that future ads and coming debates will change the race of course, but as of now I’m thinking that the fat lady is going to catch a flight to Delaware after doing her warmup in Ohio.

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A reversal in Oregon

By on October 12, 2010

Republican Chris Dudley led the whole way in the Oregon Governor’s race from May to August in the polling, and led two of three polls in September, but now as October hits, Democrat John Kitzhaber can claim to have taken two of the last four polls.

I wouldn’t suggest that Dudley’s supporters panic or that Kitzhaber measuring for drapes, but I find the new Rasmussen poll to be noteworthy.

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October marches on, and so does the House generic ballot polling. Last week Republicans were on the rebound and this week every single generic is showing Republicans back on top, as has not been the case lately.

So let’s see what the damage is.

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Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried.

Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry about the need for another divisive recount.

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Right after the primaries in New York, when Republicans finally found out that Joe DioGuardi would be going against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, they got a big bounce in the polls.

Judging by the new Quinnipiac, that bounce had a finite lifespan, and that lifespan was not particularly long.

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