Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

And now the mirror image of North Carolina: Connecticut

Much as Richard Burr has underperformed in the view of many, so too is Democrat Richard Blumenthal having more trouble than expected to shake Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race.

And while it is Rasmussen’s second consecutive single-digit gap that inspires this post, Quinnipiac also has it at 10, a long way from the D+41 of January.

So yes, Rasmussen had it at +7 last month, but now it’s +9 after the leaners are included: Blumenthal 53, McMahon 44 (MoE 4.5). For some races, an 84% chance that the frontrunner is ahead wouldn’t be newsworthy or interesting at all. But again, back in January the matchup was off the scale at Blumenthal 58, McMahon 34.

15 points is a long way for a race to swing. Does McMahon have another 9 in her to tie it up? Those last 9 will be much harder to get than the last 15 (or even the first 31 from Quinnipiac’s +41 to +10 swing), because she’s already won the primary and now has to battle Blumenthal head to head.

Plus, if Blumenthal ever shows any actual weakness, a small state like this is ideal for the cash-strapped Democrats to spend on for great leverage. But the fact that we even have to consider that possibility is all it takes to know that McMahon has turned a non-competitive race into one with possibilities for the Republican Party.

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