My plan had been to push out projections every Monday until election day but Labor Day brought out the laziness in me, so we do this week’s on Tuesday. Last time, my third projection showed the second straight gradual gain for Republicans. Let’s see if the trend continues.
Senate right now: 59 D-41 R.
Seats up right now: 19 D-18 R.
Seats therefore not up: 40 D-23 R.
Minimum result needed for majority: -9 for Democrats, +10 for Republicans.
I’m going to work off the polls when they’re available, working from Real Clear Politics and make guesses otherwise. That’s usually easy because the seats that aren’t polled are typically safe. Changes from last time will be in boldface.
AL: Richard Shelby: Primaries done. Lead has grown to +32 in Rasmussen. 99.9% R victory.
AK: Lisa Murkowski (primaried): Primaries done. Joe Miller leads the early polling but not quite overwhelmingly. 80% R victory (from 99%).
AZ: John McCain: Primaries done. McCain maintaining 20 point leads. 99% R victory
AR: Blanche Lincoln: Primaries done. John Boozman up 20+ in polling. 99% R victory.
CA: Barbara Boxer: Primaries done. Polling mixed but favoring Boxer. 33% R victory (from 45%).
CO: Michael Bennet: Primaries done. Only PPP has Bennet ahead. 75% R victory.
CT: Chris Dodd (retiring): Primaries done. McMahon making steady gains on Blumenthal. 15% R victory.
DE: Joe Biden (resigned): Primaries in progress. Mike Castle’s lead down to the teens. 95% R victory.
FL: Mel Martinez (resigned): Primaries done. The wrong Democrat won for Charlie Crist. 85% R victory.
GA: Johnny Isakson: Primaries done. Isakson lead in the 20s save for one Insider Advantage poll. If it’s confirmed by others this rating will move further. 99% R victory.
HI: Daniel Inouye: Primaries in progress. Inouye nearing 70 in poll. 0.1% R victory.
ID: Mike Crapo: Primaries done. Crapo lead hovering around 40. 99.9% R victory.
IL: Barack Obama (resigned): Primaries done. Last two polls both tied. 50% R victory (from 55).
IN: Evan Bayh (retiring): Primaries done. Dan Coats lead growing. 99% R victory.
IA: Chuck Grassley: Primaries done. Grassley rebounds from one bad poll. 99% R victory.
KS: Sam Brownback (retiring): Primaries done. Republican Jerry Moran leading all polls. 99.9% R victory.
KY: Jim Bunning (retiring). Primaries done. Randal Paul’s lead seems to be growing. 85% R victory (from 75%).
LA: David Vitter: Primaries done. Vitter gets a bounce in Rasmussen. 95% R victory (from 90%).
MD: Barbara Mikulski: Primaries in progress. Mikulski’s primary opponent’s internal even has her ahead. 0.1% R victory.
MO: Kit Bond (retiring): Primaries done. Blunt marching on from one bad poll I didn’t trust anyway. 85% R victory.
NV: Harry Reid: Primaries done. Reid takes another tiny lead in a back and forth race. 45% R victory (from 50%).
NC: Richard Burr: Primaries done. Burr keeping lead but yet unable to pull back ahead by double figures. 70% R victory.
ND: Byron Dorgan (retiring): Primaries are done. John Hoeven leads by so much he breaks the graphics in my analysis tool. 99.9% R victory.
NH: Judd Gregg (retiring): Primaries in progress. Kelly Ayotte bouncing back. 85% R victory.
NY: Chuck Schumer: Primaries in progress. Schumer’s lowest lead in any poll was 19. 0.1% R victory.
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand: Primaries in progress. Gillibrand leads every matchup. 1% R victory.
OH: George Voinovich (retiring): Primaries done. Portman extends his lead. 85% R victory (from 70%).
OK: Tom Coburn: Primaries done. Coburn lead approaching 40. 99.9% R victory.
OR: Ron Wyden: Primaries done. Recent polling very good to Wyden. My thoughts of this being a sleeper GOP victory seem to have been premature. 1% R victory.
PA: Arlen Specter (primaried): Primaries done (especially for Specter). Pat Toomey finally hits double figures in one poll. 85% R victory (from 80%).
SC: Jim DeMint: Primaries done. No polling I can find. Alvin Greene’s indictment seems to have diminished interest in this race. 99.9% R victory.
SD: John Thune: Primaries done. Unopposed. 100% R victory.
UT: Bob Bennett (primaried): Primaries done. Lee lead down to 25 in the sole poll. 99.9% R victory.
VT: Patrick Leahy: Primaries in progress. Leahy up 35. 0.1% R victory.
WA: Patty Murray: Primary done. Rossi takes another poll. 60% R victory (from 45%).
WV: Robert Byrd (died): Special election in progress. Manchin lead cut from 16 to 6 in sole poll. 25% R victory (from 1%).
WI: Russ Feingold: Primaries in progress. Still no new polls other than Rasmussen’s with Johnson’s small lead. 45% R victory.
100,000 trials using the probabilities above.
As with last time, a 7 seat Republican gain is most likely according to these estimates. Though there is a tiny Republican gain from last week as 8, not 6, is the second most likely outcome now. Those three outcomes of R+6 to R+8 account for 62% (61,798/100,000) of the curve. 6% (6,386/100,000) of the trials gave Republicans a Senate majority, up from last week’s 4%. Only 3 of 100,000 trials gave Democrats a gain.
So we have another slight gain from last time for Republicans, making it three in a row that the opposition has gained, though this time the gain was much less than a whole seat. A majority change is still unlikely according to the polls, but 6% starts to become worth talking about.