Unlikely Voter

On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.

It’s the weekend, so I will be brief, but I saw this poll and thought I’d mention it: After so many polls showing him competitive or even close, Dino Rossi has registered a tie with Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race.

Sharron Angle polled the “worst” against Harry Reid of the three leading Republicans in the Nevada Senate Primary, but she’s maintaining a lead going into the general election.

I let this one simmer for any unity bounces, so let’s take a look at this new poll.

Wow. Just when I thought both Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports were both showing Richard Burr in good shape, Rasmussen shows his lead down to a single point.

What happened?

Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.”

But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?

(It’d help if I get the state name right, wouldn’t it?)

Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years.

But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.

I’ve been spoiled. After so many primaries, it’s been a while since I had to deal with a big carpet bomb poll of general election possibilities. But today we have another one, as by request I look at Rasmussen’s latest of the Vermont Governor’s race.

National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006.

Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.

Roy Barnes seems to have his party’s nomination sewn up for Governor of Georgia, but the Republicans have seven names on the ballot, with three over double figures. SurveyUSA took a look.

Barnes is well over 50 for the Democrats, but a runoff appears certain for the Republicans. The only question is which two will make it?

Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway.

But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.

I only found two polls to look at for the Utah Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater, but they were pretty far apart from each other.

Let’s see who was closer.

Yup, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are tied again, says Public Policy Polling.

The only way I saw Toomey keeping his previous lead was if the Job Offer controversy heated up and implicated Sestak in wrongdoing. It seems clear to me that the whole thing has blown over, and now the electorate has shifted back toward the tie I expect it to be from now to November.

With the election tomorrow, I thought I’d take a look at two recent polls of the Utah Senate primary between Tim Bridgewater and Mike Lee, the top two vote getters in the GOP convention.

Sometimes polls can differ, but this is a huge difference. I’m looking at one poll Dan Jones & Associates conducted for Deseret News and KSL-TV, and another that Wenzel Strategies did for the Senate Conservatives Fund.

Each one shows a different leader.