Unlikely Voter

Rasmussen released two new polls today. The Illinois and Delaware Senate races would seem to have little in common, but they do share a common element: they are being held for the seats vacated by Barack Obama and Joe Biden after their victory in November 2008.

Are voters inclined to send more Democrats to the Senate to work with them?

Five men are seeking to be the Republican nominee in the Indiana Senate race to replace Evan Bayh. Three have a likely chance to win. From where is each getting his support?

The Ohio Senate race shows an interesting finding, the Nevada Senate race solidifies, and Georgia gets carpet bombed in today’s quick hits.

We’ve already seen that Republicans are in fair shape in the New Hampshire Senate race, but it appears that the state could also return to its historical norm of sending Republicans to the House, according to the latest from PPP.

First the Texas and Maryland Governor’s races are closing, and now so is the North Dakota at-large House race, per Rasmussen.

Even in a wave year, not every race moves the same way. Ultimately, candidates matter because ours is not a party list system.

There is more to life than the US Senate. In many states, control of the Governor’s office will have a critical role in the process of redistricting after the 2010 Census and reapportionment of US House seats.

So today we look at the Maryland Governor’s race as polled by Rasmussen.

Tommy Thompson was going to give Russ Feingold a tough race, but he decided not to run. How are Republicans doing now to challenge the three term incumbent? Rasmussen has a look.

One race: North Carolina Senate general between Republican Richard Burr and prospective Democrats Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall. Two polls: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. Two markedly different results: Rasmussen shows Burr nearly 10 points higher than PPP does.

What’s going on?

Here are a couple of quick hits of races we’ve covered recently: The Republican primary for the New Hampshire Senate race, and California general election for Governor.

Public Policy Polling looked into the special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, the seat vacated by the late Jack Murtha.

Do southerners do well in Presidential elections? Two of the last three Democrats to win were southern Governors, and the last two Republicans to win were Texans. That’s all some need to pencil in Rick Perry, two and a half term successor to George W. Bush, as a likely Republican nominee in 2012.

The latest from Rasmussen suggests his run for a third full term won’t be easy, though. The White vote could be an issue.

It’s slightly old but I know people are interested in this race, so an actual Rasmussen primary poll between Republicans JD Hayworth and John McCain.

McCain leads, but is he doing well?

I found today’s polls to be dull, so I wanted to do something I found fun and maybe even interesting this morning. I wrote a simple, very crude simulator to project the Senate results based on the Real Clear Politics race categories. RCP rates races Safe, Likely, or Leaning for one party or the other unless it’s a Toss Up.

Here’s what I found.