Unlikely Voter

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Obama and Biden to be succeeded by Republicans?

Rasmussen released two new polls today. The Illinois and Delaware Senate races would seem to have little in common, but they do share a common element: they are being held for the seats vacated by Barack Obama and Joe Biden after their victory in November 2008.

Are voters inclined to send more Democrats to the Senate to work with them?

The polls suggest the answer is “no.” Not with Mike Castle, Delaware Republican, ahead of Democrat Chris Coons 55-32 (MoE 4.5), for a dominant 99% lead probability.

Also not with Republican Mark Kirk holding down Democrat Alexi Giannoulias 46-38, for an 81% lead probability. This result in particular is a remarkable turnaround from Obama’s 2004 election to the Senate in which he lapped Republican import Alan Keyes 70-27.

It would be hard enough for the President if Republicans take the House and make the Senate close, but if Republicans take his and his Vice President’s old seats, that will add insult to injury.


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