Unlikely Voter

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Reversal of fortunes in New Hampshire?

We’ve already seen that Republicans are in fair shape in the New Hampshire Senate race, but it appears that the state could also return to its historical norm of sending Republicans to the House, according to the latest from PPP.

Before the second Bush midterm election, Democrats hadn’t won both New Hampshire House seats since the 1912 election on Woodrow Wilson’s coattails. They then lost both right back two years later. The Carol Shea-Porter/Paul Hodes pair is notable as the first Democrats to hold two New Hampshire seats for two terms since the founding of the Republican party.

Combine that news with Jeanne Shaheen defeating John Sununu in 2008, and Republicans had fallen in just one election from holding the entire New Hampshire delegation to controlling just one of four seats. Some thought this marked the end of northeastern Republicanism.

But Kelly Ayotte is situated well in the Senate race against Hodes who now runs for the Senate, and the House races are just as competitive. Shea-Porter trails Frank Guinta 46-45 (MoE 3.9) despite a majority having no opinion of the Republican. Guinta has only a 55% chance of being ahead, but Republicans will take it after the last two elections.

The other district also shows improvement for Republican chances. Charlie Bass is running for his old seat to replace the man who beat him, Hodes, and leads Katrina Swett (“the best known Democratic candidate” per PPP) 47-32, with a crushing 97% lead probability aided by his 49-26 lead among independents.

Republicans have run poorly in New Hampshire in the last two elections, but may yet make a strong rebound this year to retake a majority of the state’s Congressional delegation. Democrats will have a hard time holding the House seats, though, when statewide 52% oppose the PPACA (“President Obama’s health care plan,” per PPP) to 42% who support it.


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